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Description

This assignment requires: PowerPoint presentation, Word Doc, and 2 Excel Sheets

My Topic is: Are people skipping regular routine visits to the doctor’s since COVID-19 (March 2020) and if primary care offices are losing money because of this? The data can be mock data, does not have to be real data.

The two quantitative models I need to use are: Forecasting – to predict what the trend will look like for the rest of this year and onward as the pandemic is still here, are people still avoiding going to the doctors? and then Break even Analysis to see if offices are losing money and how many patients they need to see in order not to lose money.

Assignment directions for the word doc (4-5 pages)/excel sheets:

1) Problem Definition / Identification: Provide a short description of the issue or problem being addressed (this must concern some aspect of health care services).

a. Why is this a decision, a problem or an issue to be decided now. That is, it

may have been an issue previously but was deferred to later, why is it

important and why must it be addressed *now*?

b. Note: a careful answer to this section will contain the elements for the

solution.

2) Setting: Provide a brief description of the relevant details of the setting to make the issue clear to the reader and to provide a specific context for making decisions about what is to be included in the model, and how, or excluded from the model,

3) Goal: State the objective(s) of the project.

What are the explicit decision criteria? That is, what are the outcomes or

performance measures(that is, numbers) by which success will be judged?

4) Client: Identify the person or role who must make a decision based on this model / analysis.

a. As a practical matter, it is best to have a single client to whom you report the results, others could be stakeholders.

b. What is/are their relevant interests? This provides the perspective of the

analysis and suggests what should be included and perhaps what may be

excluded.

5) The time horizon of the analysis. Note that there is a time horizon for completing the model project – that is not what is needed here. This section requires you to identify the time period covered by the analysis (e.g., 1 year, 5 years, 6 etc.). The time horizon should include the time by which success will be decided, with success being based on the criteria that you provided, e.g. increased profit, HSMG 650 Quantitative Management Methods: Modeling Project reduced costs or improved productivity. It is more effective to provide a quantitative target for such goals so that performance can be better calibrated.

a. Why is this the time horizon?

b. How does this time horizon influence the inferences that can be made

from the model?

6) Model: Present a high level model of the issue or decision under analysis

a. What are its key factors – identify inputs, constraints and output(s);

b. Show how these factors relate to one another: use block diagrams / figures to identify the influence pattern of inputs and processes for outputs.

c. Provide an Excel spreadsheet implementation of the model for analysis.

This is the model, its solution will come in Step 8.

d. Apply the components of good spreadsheet modeling practices that are

discussed in class, making the spreadsheet self-documenting

7) Assumptions: Identify each assumption used in constructing the model.

a. where data may not be available, explain for each variable how you

would obtain such data if you had greater time and resources.

b. Identify data concerns or limitations based on the most important variables

e.g., are the data potentially biased? If so, in what ways and how might (or

does) that affect the model.

8) Solution:

a. Perform the analysis of the spreadsheet model that you have developed. to the model.

b. Perform at least one sensitivity analysis, possibly using a range on one or

two of the more critical assumptions from # 7.

c. Explain what information the sensitivity analyses reveal / contain for the

decision, particularly for the risk averse.

9) Recommendation to the client (see # 4 above).

a. Make your recommendations clear and specific

b. Explain / include any factors outside the quantitative model that should be considered, e.g., what could not be measured or included in the model but may still be important in achieving the results suggested by the model,

c. What is in the model but the measurement of that factor(s) may lack

sufficient precision to make the risk assessment reliable.

10) Presentation:

a. PowerPoint file for a brief (<= 10 minute) presentation to a management committee on what you have done and what you recommend. b. The presentation should have a beginning, a middle and an end (recommendation(s)). c. The presentation score will include time management as one criterion.

  
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